WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP

id: 217192

date: 7/17/2009 23:03

refid: 09TEGUCIGALPA617

origin: Embassy Tegucigalpa

classification: CONFIDENTIAL

destination: 09TEGUCIGALPA574|09TEGUCIGALPA578|09TEGUCIGALPA580|09TEGUCIGALPA587|09TEGUCIGALPA591|09TEGUCIGALPA594

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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000617

 

SIPDIS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019

TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, HO

SUBJECT: TFH01: WHO'S WHO OF THE HONDURAN COUP

 

REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 594

B. TEGUCIGALPA 591 AND PREVIOUS

C. TEGUCIGALPA 587

D. TEGUCIGALPA 580

E. TEGUCIGALPA 578

F. TEGUCIGALPA 574

 

Classified By: amb. Hugo Llorens, e.o. 12958 1.4(b) and (d)

 

1. (C) Summary: As the Zelaya and Micheletti teams prepare to

engage for a second round of talks in Costa Rica July 18 on

restoring the constitutional order in Honduras, the fate of

any deal that may emerge from the talks will most likely be

determined by a relatively small number of opinion-makers and

power brokers in Honduras who are not part of either Zelaya's

administration or Micheletti's de facto regime. This message

profiles some of these figures and their potential roles in

making or breaking a political agreement, using the color

scheme laid out in ref B and previous. End Summary.

 

2. (C) Carlos Flores: President of Honduras 1998-2002 and

elder statesman of the Liberal Party, Honduras's largest

political party. Flores also publishes one of the country's

major daily newspapers, "La Tribuna," which has been critical

of Zelaya's presidency. Zelaya views him as a political

rival and obstacle to his plans to transform the Liberal

Party. Little happens in Honduran politics without Flores

knowing about it. Still, he claims he had no advance

knowledge of the June 28 coup, even though the decree and

analysis that coup defenders cite as proof of Zelaya's intent

to dissolve Congress and convene a constituent assembly

following his constitutional reform opinion poll appeared the

morning of the coup in "La Tribuna." Since the coup, Flores

has quietly sought to promote dialogue among key players to

resolve the political crisis. Since at it's heart the crisis

is a feud within the Liberal Party, he is extremely well

placed. His daughter, Lizzy Flores, is Vice President of

Congress and rumored to have been uncomfortable with the way

Zelaya's removal was rushed through Congress June 28.

 

Hue: pastel pink

Stature: high

Influence: high

Role: crucial

 

3. (C) Ricardo Maduro: Zelaya's immediate predecessor as

President of Honduras (2002-2006) and elder statesman of the

National Party. Maduro is well respected among the White

Team and within the Honduran and international business

community. Maduro has sworn to the Ambassador that he had no

foreknowledge of the June 28 coup. However, most of his

party strongly supported Zelaya's removal, more so than the

ruling Liberal Party, which is split over the issue. But

Maduro is a man of considerable intellect and strategic

vision who can be persuaded that a political compromise that

restores the consitutional order is in Honduras's, and

therefore the National Party's, best interest.

 

Hue: eggshell

Stature: high

Influence: high

Role: potentially very helpful

 

4. (C) Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez: The Archbishop of

Tegucigalpa has long been one of the most respected and

beloved figures in Honduras, or at least he was until he

publicly endorsed the coup and the Micheletti regime on live

television July 4, causing him to be vilified by the Red

Team. He has called for peace and reconciliation but also

urged Zelaya to stay out of Honduras. In recent days, he has

backed away somewhat from his earlier endorsement of the

coup, we think under instructions from the Vatican. He told

the Ambassador the evening of July 16 that he would support

an agreement brokered that would allow President Zelaya to

return to Honduras. His early support for the coup

nonetheless undermined his credibility as a potential

mediator. Still, his blessing for any agreement could sway

significant numbers from both the Red and White camps.

 

Hue: almond

Stature: high (but falling among reds)

Influence: high

Role: Potentially important as a ratifier

 

5. (C) Elvin Santos: The Liberal Party presidential nominee,

Santos has a strong personal political interest in finding a

resolution to the current crisis (ref A). He enjoyed a

10-point lead in polls over National Party candidate Pepe

Lobo shortly before the coup. The first post-coup poll

showed him trailing Lobo by five points: 41-36 percent. He

has made a series of televised messages appealing for peace,

reconciliation and dialogue while being careful to neither

condemn nor endorse the coup. As Zelaya's former vice

president who resigned to run to succeed him while distancing

himself from Zelaya politically, Santos's interests are best

served by moving quickly past the current crisis and shifting

the Honduran political discussion away from Zelaya and

Micheletti and onto the campaign to succeed them.

 

Hue: powder puff

Stature: medium

Influence: moderate

Role: post-electoral hope

 

6. (C) Pepe Lobo: The National Party presidential nominee,

Lobo has benefitted in the short term from the conflict

within the Liberal Party. But his long term interests, as

possibly the next president, require restoring legitimacy and

removing Honduras from international pariah status. Like

Santos, he has made televised messages calling for peace,

reconciliation and dialogue. But he has been more supportive

of the coup and the Micheletti regime.

 

Hue: Lilac

Stature: medium

Influence: moderate

Role: potential spoiler or redeemer

 

7. (C) Arturo Corrales: Although part of Micheletti's

negotiating team in San Jose (ref F), Corrales has not taken

a position within the new regime and has thus preserved his

ability to act as the consumate bipartisan dealmaker. A

former presidential candidate for the small, centrist

Christian Democrat Party, Corrales is known as the "oracle"

of Honduran politics for his shrewd instincts and predictive

power. He is also considered by some to be one of the three

most important power-brokers in Honduran politics, along with

ormer presidents Carlos Flores and Rafael Callejas

 

Hue: ivory-blush

Stature: high

Influence: igh

Role: dealmaker

 

8. (C) Vilma Morales: Another member of Micheletti's

negotiating team for the first round of talks in San Jose,

Morales was Chief Justice of the Honduran Supreme Court

2002-2009. A National Party stalwart, she regularly feuded

with Zelaya from the bench and has been one of the June 28

coup's most outspoken legal defenders. Although respected

within Honduran legal circles, her legal judgment on the

current crisis is clouded by her partisanship.

 

Hue: snowblind

Stature: high

Influence: low-medium

Role: not likely helpful

 

9. (C) Luis Rubi: As Attorney General, he appears to have

been directly involved in the decision to remove Zelaya, has

defended the legality of the action since and has used the

legal apparatus under his control to stifle dissent and

intimidate/persecute members of Zelaya's team. The Attorney

General is appointed through a consultative process to a

five-year term and may not be removed at the pleasure of the

President. His continued tenure may therefore need to be

part of the negotiation, with Whites desiring that he stay in

place as a check on Zelaya and Zelaya demanding his

resignation.

 

Hue: sunbleached

Stature: medium-high

Influence: high

Role: might have to go

 

10. (C) Jorge Rivera Aviles: The Chief Justice of the Supreme

Court, he told the Ambassador that he was not involved in the

coup and was unwilling to swear-in Micheletti on June 28.

Others say he was a key coup plotter. Either way, he has

publicly defended the legality of the coup, but we understand

some other justices on the court consider it was illegal (ref

E). He is constitutionally third in line of succession to the

Presidency.

 

Hue: birch

Stature: medium-high

Influence: high

Role: Could be key

 

11. (C) Edmundo Orellana: Former Foreign Minister then

Defense Minister for Zelaya, resigned just before the coup

when Zelaya fired defense chief Vasquez Velasquez for

refusing to carry out the constitutional reform opinion poll

in defiance of a court order. Also a Liberal Party member of

Congress. Orellana is a lawyer and diplomat of center-left

political views. He has been working behind the scenes with

remnants of the depose Zelaya cabinet to seek a negotiated,

conditional return of Zelaya to power.

 

Hue: passionate pink

Stature: medium

Influence: moderate

Role: potentially useful go-between

 

12. (C) Jose Azcona: Son of former President of the same name

(1986-1990) Azcona is considered one of the rising generation

of Liberal Party leaders and a possible future presidential

candidate. He holds a second-tier leadership position in the

Congress and is close to Micheletti. Nonetheless, he has

expressed to us his disagreement with the coup and desire to

help broker a deal on Zelaya's conditional return. But he

has kept those views private so as not to burn his bridge

with Micheletti.

 

Hue: fuschia

Stature: medium

Influence: medium

Role: behind-the-scenes voice of reason

 

13. (C) Jaime Rosenthal: One of Honduras's most prominent

media and industrial tycoons, Rosenthal has been a long-time

power broker and financial backer of the Liberal Party. His

son Yani was Minister of the Presidency during the first

half of Zelaya's term. His newspaper, "Tiempo," has been the

most sympathetic to Zelaya of the four major Honduran dailies

and the most critical of the coup since June 28. His

television stations have also taken a moderate line since the

coup and been more willing to air anti-coup viewpoints.

 

Hue: peach

Stature: medium-high

Influence: high

Role: Could be key to selling an agreement

 

14. (C) Jorge Canahuati: A rival/competitor of Rosenthal's,

Canahuati's "El Heraldo" and "La Prensa" have been the most

harshly anti-Zelaya and pro-coup. His publications frame the

opinions of the National Party mainstream.

 

Hue: lily white

Stature: medium-high

Influence: high

Role: possible obstruction

 

15. (C) The "Turcos": Refers to the small industrial and

financial elite, predominantly of Arab/Palestinian origin,

who dominate the Honduran economy and have tremendous weight,

usually exercised behind the scenes, on its politics.

Prominent memberws include Miguel Facusse, his son-in-law

Fredy Nasser, the Kafie Brothers and Camilo Atala. It is

highly likely that at least some of them knew about the coup.

These are the so-called "Power Groups" railed against by

Zelaya and his leftist supporters.

 

Hue: alabaster

Stature: medium

Influence: high

Role: will need to be coopted into any deal

 

16. (C) Doris Gutierrez: A member of Congress from the

leftist Democratic Unification (UD) Party, Gutierrez is a

leading voice of the democratic left, with the stress on

"democratic." She has attacked corruption in the Zelaya

administration but also the coup that removed him.

Hue: magenta

Stature: low-medium

Influence: low-medium

Role: could bring some reds around to a deal

 

17. (C) Rafael Alegria: A militant advocate for small farmers

(although disdained by many truly representative peasant

organizations), Alegria is generally considered to be a

Chavez proxy, if not actually on Chavez's payroll. He was

constantly seen in Zelaya's presence in the final days before

the coup, when Zelaya was threatening to push ahead with a

constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court

order.

 

Hue: blood red

Stature: low

Influence: low

Role: obstruction

 

18. (C) Cesar Ham: Presidential candidate for the leftist UD

party, he was closely associated with Zelaya's final push for

a constitutional reform opinion poll in defiance of a court

order. He and some others in his party are now openly

calling for violent insurrection to bring Zelaya back.

 

Hue: crimson

Stature: low

Influence: low-medium

Role: potential wrecker

LLORENS

 

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